Probability, Live

Textbook probability is static: a fixed deck, a fixed answer. These are the same mathematics running in real time on a shrinking, changing sample space — conditional probability, expected value and variance where you can watch the distribution move. Plus a few other things that don’t fit anywhere else.

Why card counting is worth a maths student’s attention. A shoe of cards is a finite population sampled without replacement, so every card dealt rewrites the distribution for every card still to come. That is the definition of conditional probability, and it is unusually easy to see here: the count is nothing more than a running sufficient statistic for the composition of what is left. The Hi-Lo count is the crude estimator; exact shoe tracking is the full posterior. Watching those two disagree, and by how much, teaches more about estimation than a chapter of worked urn problems.
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Roulette Calculator

Independent trials, and why no amount of history changes the next spin — the gambler’s fallacy shown with the arithmetic in front of you.

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Blackjack Simulator

A running estimator over a shrinking sample space: Hi-Lo as a sufficient statistic, and true count as the correction that makes it comparable across shoe depths.

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Blackjack Card Counter

The exact conditional distribution, not an approximation of it — every decision solved from the cards that remain. Compare it against Hi-Lo to see what the estimator throws away.

Other things, eventually

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Creative

Design, art, and visual thinking.

Coming Soon
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Tech

Programming, gadgets, and the web.

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Gaming

Reviews, strategy, and esports.

Coming Soon
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Fitness

Workout plans and nutrition basics.

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Music

Production, playlists, and theory.

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Books

Recommendations and reading lists.

Coming Soon